There is a “significant likelihood of a volcanic eruption in the coming days” according to the latest data from the Icelandic Met Office. Kristin Jonsdottir, a forecaster at the Icelandic Met Office, said the earthquake activity has decreased, which could indicate that magma has reached a high level in the earth’s crust. She also stated that the mountainous area of Hagafell is a “prime location for an eruption”.
Monitoring also remains in the nearby town of Grindavik (around 35 miles southwest of the capital, Reykjavik, and 16 miles from the airport), where magmatic gas has been detected at a borehole in Svartsengi, and also at a magma dyke in Sundhnuk, a few miles northeast of Grindavik, where there have been signs of seismic activity.
A nine-mile magma-filled crack emerged on November 10 in Grindavik and almost 4,000 residents were moved to evacuation centres. Icelandic civic authorities declared an “emergency phase” and the town has been evacuated as a precaution. The Blue Lagoon, one of Iceland’s most popular tourist attractions, is just four miles north of Grindavik and is now closed for the rest of November.
Main photo: the Blue Lagoon (Alamy)
Video: Are you thinking of travelling to Iceland? Here’s what you need to know
Is it safe to travel to Iceland right now?
The Foreign Office is not advising against travel to Iceland, but has issued new guidance for tourists. It has stated that earthquakes and indications of volcanic activity have “increased above normal levels” on the Reykjanes peninsula. It cautions visitors that the town of Grindavik has been evacuated and that they are advised to stay away from the area.
“While there is no current eruption, it is increasingly possible that one could occur. You should monitor local media for updates and follow the authorities’ advice on travel to the area,” the Foreign Office says.
Where are the earthquakes in Iceland?
There has been a cluster of earthquakes near Mount Thorbjorn and the town of Grindavik on the Reykjanes peninsula, with several hundred registered each day, particularly at the magma dyke at Sundhnuk. Residents have been evacuated from Grindavik and an operation is in place to remove pets and livestock from the affected region.
Icelandic authorities are also building defence walls around the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, also in the southwest of the country, in the hope that they will protect the plant from any potential lava flows.
How long is the Blue Lagoon closed for?
The Blue Lagoon initially closed on November 9 for a week but this has now been extended until November 30 — a decision it says was taken “proactively” due to seismic concerns. In its latest update, the Blue Lagoon says that the risk level indicates “escalating danger”.
“The earthquakes may intensify beyond what has already occurred, potentially leading to an eruption,” reads an update on its website. “However, as of now, there are no indications of magma reaching the surface. The progress is being closely monitored.”
Kristijan Svajnzger, Iceland general manager for adventure travel specialist Intrepid, said on November 10: “Earthquakes are a common occurrence in Iceland. Each year, thousands of tremors shake the country, many uneventful or unnoticeable.
“Our tours running at the moment do not visit Grindavik. Other tourism spots such as the Golden Circle, the south coast and northern lights tours are not affected and remain open for travellers.
“We are monitoring the situation closely and following the advice of our local team and the authorities. All of our tours are running as planned.
“If you are due to travel to Iceland, my advice would be to check the Foreign Office advice and speak to your travel agent or tour operator for the latest guidance.”
How common are earthquakes in Iceland?
The Icelandic Met Office states that the probability of an eruption is “still considered high” and that the most likely location is at the magma dyke in Sundhnuk where activity has remained constant since November 11.
When was the last big earthquake in Iceland?
Before the 5.7-magnitude eruption of Fagradalsfjall in 2021, there had been no volcanic activity on the Reykjanes peninsula for around 800 years. Fagradalsfjall erupted again in 2022 and an earthquake measuring 5.4 hit the southern peninsula on July 31 of that year causing moderate damage. On May 29, 2008, a pair of earthquakes measuring 6.1 hit Iceland between the towns of Hveragerdi and Selfoss, close to the capital Reykjavik. No fatalities were reported but 30 injuries were recorded and sheep were killed.
Can the volcano affect flights?
Flights are departing and arriving at Keflavik airport as normal, as are services to Akureyri airport in the northeast.
Iceland Air stated on Friday, November 17, that the recent seismic activity has not affected flights to or from Iceland. An alert issued from the airline said: “We are in close contact with Icelandic authorities and are monitoring the situation closely.”
Visit Iceland said in a statement: “While the possibility of air traffic disturbance cannot be entirely ruled out, scientists consider it an unlikely scenario. The potential disruption to flight traffic would depend on factors such as the location and size of the eruption. Typically, the impact of volcanic eruptions is confined to specific, localized areas. Notably, previous eruptions in the area did not impact flights to and from the country.”
The Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010 resulted in the largest air-traffic shutdown since the Second World War with millions of passengers stranded across the world. This is because volcanic ash, if ingested in sufficient quantities, can lead to to engine failure and persistently northerly winds were carrying giant plumes of ash across Europe.
Following the Eyjafjallajokull eruption, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) says it is now better prepared for any future major volcanic ash events and is monitoring the current Fagradalsfjall situation. It states: “In the event of an eruption and development of an ash cloud, the agency will work with other aviation actors to assess the impact for aviation and make recommendations accordingly.”
Is Reykjavik affected?
The Icelandic capital is around 35 miles from Grindavik, which is close to where the seismic activity is concentrated. At the moment, the city is not affected, but it’s uncertain what impact any eruption might have.
Additional reporting by Qin Xie
